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Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay. Florida

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers TOTAL 56 - You can't ask for a better story than this, The GOAT vs the Young Star, Brady vs. Mahomes, but we know there is so much more involved in the end result. And, as has happened several times throughout the playoffs, these teams actually met at the end of November, as the Chiefs came away with a 32-29, victory after sprinting out to a 17-0, first quarter lead. 

These really are two very good teams right now, they are both on major runs.  The Chiefs having only one setback since Oct. 11, and that was in the season finale when they didn't play several regulars or limited action. KC just lives for the moment, the Chiefs have so many weapons  on offense, the defense makes big plays at big times and they are experienced in this situation The Bucs have won seven straight, all since returning from their bye week. This was a team that added parts along the way on offense and really just kept building, having scored 30 or more points in their last six outings. Obviously, Tampa has some big-game experience at key positions, so that should help early on in keeping this group focused. Both teams have depth at multiple skill spots on offense and should come out firing in the first quarter. Only thing that can stop these teams are themselves with mistakes! 

Going to look for a decent offensive outing for both teams which should push this over. As much as I would like to see Tom Brady get this SB victory, just think the Chiefs always seem to put themselves in a position to win the last few seasons and will late. However, taking the Bucs and the field goal. Kansas City 30, Tampa Bay 28

Sunday, January 24, 2021

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers (-3.5) TOTAL 52 - Great matchup of future HOF quarterbacks in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in this game to get to the Super Bowl.  The Bucs offense has been explosive and has so many weapons to turn to. I also like the tough schedule TB faced, with the only two losses since Nov. 15, coming at the hands of a then healthy Rams team and the AFC Championship Game particiant, the Chiefs! Nothing but respect for Rodgers and Green Bay, the Pack has done all that has been asked to this point, however, two of the three setbacks were to playoff teams (these Bucs and the Colts) and is cause for concern. One more run for "Old Man" Brady, who looks as good as ever - taking the points.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-3) TOTAL 54.5 - I am impressed with the Bills this season, they have a really improved passing game, led by WR Stefon Diggs, play steady defense with the capabilities of making big plays and are well-coached. The Defending Champion Chiefs just plain and simple win, not always a thing of beauty, but they are professional in every sense of the word and know how to finish games with so many playmakers. The big knock on KC has been the inability to cover this season, but this is only a 3-point spread, when the Chiefs usually have been giving between -5.5 and -19.5 in their other outings. In three games this season where the Cheifs were -3 or -3.5, they went 1-1-1 ATS, so I expect it will be like that again here. Not a fan of the number, but think I will take Pat Mahomes and company one more time - giving the field goal.

Sunday, January 17, 2021

After a split yesterday, looking to finish strong today...

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10) TOTAL 57  - The obvious, this can reveal that the Browns have finally gotten the coaching they need and played to their talent level this season, or the Chiefs are just that much better than everyone else and cover a spead for the first time since Nov. 1, against the Jets (-19.5)! In eight games this year, the Chiefs were favored by nine points or more and went 3-5 ATS, so you get the point! To the eye, what Cleveland did last week was impresive because of the Covid-19 issue with the coaches. Sans the Jets game (another Covid-19 game where they had no top WRs for the most part), since returning from the bye in mid-November, Cleveland has done what it was supposed to do, albeit  against many bottom feeders. I think the Cheifs win, but a late score covers the spread - taking the points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3) TOTAL 52 - Round 3 between these NFC South rivals after the Saints won the previous two meetings. It is hard to beat a team three times in sports, but not buying that here. The Saints biggest issue has been the failure over the last couple of seasons (true there where some bad calls), to win in these situations. They came out against Chicago last week and handled their business, no question, which was exactly what they needed to do. The Bucs on the other hand have appeared to figure things out with a new cast, having won five straight and six of their last eight (losses to Rams and Chiefs) , with the offense really clicking well. They have soooo many weapons for Tom Brady, but can the defense stop New Orleans offense enough to win? I think this one will be a back and forth affair, with the Saints getting by this time - giving the field goal.

Saturday, January 16, 2021

 Trying to shake off a horrible WIld-Card Weekend ...  nothing comes easy!

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers (-6.5) TOTAL 45.5 - Classic battle of a top offense, Packers, against a top defense, Rams. Looking for the location, despite it not being brutaly cold, but cold enough to have an effect on the Rams offense. On the other side, I think Rodgers is on a silence-his-critics roll and wants back in the NFC CHampionship Game. Green Bay gets the late touchdown to win it - laying the points.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (-3) TOTAL 49.5 - This one features the Ravens, an organization which has  been a tough competitor when in the playoffs in their history, against a Bills team that finally appears to have rounded into a formidable club. Like the line suggests, this should be a very close game with the Ravens defense the one area I think will change the game. In the end taking the Ravens and the field goal.

Sunday, January 10, 2021

Yesterday was a rough one, so back to the grind to get some back today

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans TOTAL 54 - These teams are very close in overall strength, both want to run the ball first and foremost, play tough defense, and are usually disciplined and well coached. Both went 4-4 versus teams that made the playoffs and in the meeting between the two earlier this season, Tennessee came away with a 6-point win at Baltimore. I think we will be looking at a knock-down battle that comes down to the wire and the hook makes me go with the home team - taking the points.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints (-10.5) TOTAL 48.5 - This is another game where these teams meet for the second time this season after the Saints scored a 3-point overtime win on the road on Nov. 1. This time, the scene shifts to New Orleans, where the Saints went 6-2 this season. As far as competitive edges, Bears went 1-6 versus playoff teams, while New Orleans was 3-2 against postseason clubs, but both those setbacks were to the #1 seeds in each conference and were one-score setbacks. The biggest issue is the 10.5 points the Saints must cover in the playoffs. If the Saints are at full strenght, which they are expected to be, they can win big - it's a give.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) TOTAL  47.5 - The Browns were hit by Covid-19 heading into this one and won't have what can be considered their most important asset - head coach Kevin Stefanski, who also calls the plays. Coaching is so important in any sport, and while technology does help a bit, on game day a good head coach is worth points and Stefanski was just that in turning this team around this season! The Steelers limp into the playoffs, losing four of their last five, but they did split with this division rival this season, with the loss in the last week of the season, when they sat Ben Roethlisberger. I think the Steelers can get the job done, mostly because the coaching situation muddles things - laying the points. 

Saturday, January 9, 2021

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-6.5) TOTAL 51.5 - The Bills have really checked off a lot of boxes this season and have to be considered one of the favorites to reach the Super Bowl on the AFC side. The Colts are also an improved group this season, but while QB Philip Rivers has certainly paid dividens, a big key has been the ground game behind RB Jonathan Taylor. Still, if anyone can hamper this offense it's the Buffalo defense and that will be the difference. Going with the hometown Bills, who will have a small, but loud crowd behind them - laying the points.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-3) TOTAL 42.5 - Probably the biggest question mark in this one is will Rams QB Jared Goff not just play, but can he be effective two weeks removed from thumb surgery? Just don't think so!. Meanwhile, the Seahawks come in riding a 4-game winning streak, including a win over these Rams. I just think Seattle can do enough and get the job done by a little more than a field goal - it's a give.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) @ Washington Football Team TOTAL 44.5 - The Bucs offense has really continued tto gel as the season progressed, dropping 26 points or more during their last four games, all wins, including 47 amd 44 the last two weeks. They have so many weapons and as long as the defense does it's job and they avoid stupid turnovers, they should be in good shape. Washington got into this one with a 7-9 record, mostly because the NFC East just wasn't that strong this year, While the feel-good story of Washington QB Alex Smith is something to root for, can't see that being enough. The only chance for Washington is to get a pass rush on QB Tom Brady with four, something he hates, but still don't think that is going to happen often to make a difference. Looking for Tampa Bay, which actually won more games away than home to simply outscore this foe - laying the points.