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Thursday, November 26. 2020

HAPPY THANKSGIVING

Houston Texans (-3) @ Detroit Lions TOTAL 52 - A couple of middle to lower tier teams meet in this annual Turkey Day game in Detroit. You really never know what you are going to get from these clubs from week to week, but when they meet opponents of similar competitve level, it's a close one. Case in point, the Texans last two victories were versus Jacksonville (1-9) and New England (4-6), while the Lions last win was over the Washington Football Team (3-7). I think Houston can win this, but Detriot has played well over the past in this particular game, so going to grab the field goal.

Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys (-3) TOTAL 46 - Another less than stellar game on tap here, but by history standards, Washington-Dallas, Thanksgiving Day, the great football memories it stirs, well let's hope for the best. The story here is still Washington QB Alex Smith and his return from what should have been a career ending leg injury, winning his first start last week and now looking for more. Dallas enters on a positive note, also winning this past Sunday, over Minnesota., snapping a four-game slide in backup QB Andy Dalton's return. I think that this one goes down to the end and that Washington can remain close enough to cover - taking the points.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills (-4) TOTAL 51.5 - Just like several factors here. The Bills are a good team. They have talent, solid coaching and play hard. The Chargers are another team that always gives a good showing, but hasn't had the same winning results this season. I also like Buffalo at home and off the bye - it's a give.

Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5) @ Atlanta Falcons TOTAL 53 - Raiders have played well this season and can score points. The Falcons are probably better than their record, but then again, there is a reason they have lost. Las Vegas has also played well away from home and should give a good account of themselves coming off the tough setback to the Chiefs. It won't be easy, but Raixers can get win by just under a touchdown - laying the points.

New Orleans Saints (-16.5) @ Denver Broncos TOTAL 36.5 - The Broncos don't have a quarterback, no really, all four are out with Covid-19 related issues. And, the NFL is making them play. Not sure how that works when the league has let other teams switch playing days under similar if not lesser situations. Reports are out that practice squad WR Kendall Hinton, who played QB at Wake Forest, is going to start for Denver. Look, the Saints don't have Drew Brees, so they are not at full strength, but playing QB in the NFL on this short notice, that has to mean a lot! Saints win this mostly by shutting down Denver and scoring on short fields - laying the points.

Indianapolis Colts (-3) @ Houston Texans  TOTAL  50.5 - The Colts stumbled last week, but it was against a good Tennessee club, so not going to hold that against them and will look for a better effort today. The Texans won easily last week over Detroit, so read into that what you want, but the big problem is that they lost WR Will Fuller, and that will hurt. Houston hasn't played as well against teams with winning records and that is the case here - taking the Colts minus the field goal.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami  Dolphins (-10.5)  TOTAL 43 - The Dolphins are playing good football, having won six of their last seven and this is a home game they shouldn't have a problem in. The Bengals are having trouble scoring on offense and they could have trouble keeping up here. I know it's hard to lay double-digits with a team like Miami, which is really just starting to come along, but if there is a spot, this is it - it's a give.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (-8.5) TOTAL 49.5 - Packers  rebounded with a big effort last week and anything close to that this week makes them an easy winner here. Meanwhile, the Eagles have lost their last three and that has led to a lot of outside noise, which can translate into internal issues. Bottom line, the Pack has playted well in Green Bay this season and Philly has had it's trouble on the road, it will be the case here. Look for the Packers to win by about 10 - laying the points.

Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7)  TOTAL 52.5 - Bucs come off a  bye and that right there is a good thing, this after losing the last two and 3-of 4. However, on closer review, the three losses were to the Saints, Rams and Chiefs, who have a collective 30-7 record! The Vikings aren't as good as that trio and you never know which Minnesota team will show up. Looking for a big effort on both sides of the ball from Tampa Bay - laying the touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) @ Miami Dolphins TOTAL 50.5 - This one is a percentage play, as the Dolphins have a strong record ATS since the mid-point of last season. We know the Chiefs can score in bunches, but the Miami defense can play, so it's your typical test of wills. The key will be can the Dolphins offense stay close enough to cover the spread. I think at home they will be in the hunt or come on late to just make it with the TD + the hook - grabbing the points.

The Washington Football Team @ San Francisco 49ers (-4) TOTAL 43.5 - Washington, despite the losing record is in  the hunt for the NFC East crown and really like the leadership skills of QB Alex Smith, as well as his decision making. Meanwhile, the 49ers have slim postseason hopes at best and they have had all sorts of issues, including their home is now in Arizona due to Covid-19. Looking for Smith to keep things moving in the right direction, while the Washington defense slows the SF offense - taking the points.

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-7) TOTAL 51.5 - Colts return home after two straight road wins, one against these Texans (26-20 @ Houston, on Dec 6). The only worry is if they let up slightly, but don't think they will and look for them to win by just a bit more than the touchdown - give.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-1) TOTAL 40.5 - Look the Patriots are never going to give up and will always be prepared. Hpow they execute and other facvtors on the field is how well thimngs go and unfortuntely it hasn't gone as well in th epast in New England this season. On the other hand the Dolphins have played well enough to be in the playoff picture, so plemty at stake here. I think this will be a close one, but the Fins get the close win - laying the point.

New York Jets @ Los Angeles Rams (-17) TOTAL 44.5 - Look, if the Rams stay to their business and don't make stupid mistakes, this oine is over at the half/. The Jerts shouldn't score more than 10 and that's just because the weather is nice, while the Rma should be dropping 35+, again if they are playing as capable. Simply put the Rams win big - it's a give.

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders TOTAL 49.5 - Dolphins are doing it with defense and at this time of year its critical, especially as they currently hold the final playoff spot in the AFC. The Raiders have lost 4-of-5, with the lone win the Jets defensive debacle game! Not saying this will be easy, Raiders can always come up with a big effort, but if form holds, Miami wins by a field goal - laying the points.

Indiamapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PK) TOTAL 42.5 - Steelers have lost three-straight outright and four ATS. Meanwhile, the Colts have won three-straight, two of those on the road. Like the way Indy is playing on both sides of the ball and while I expect a better effort from Pittsb urgh, not going to be enough - road team sneaks by with the win.

Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs  (-10.5) TOTAL 53 - The Chiefs have been winning, nine straight to be exact, but they haven't been covering of late, going 0-5-1 ATS. That stops here, as they score early and often and the Falcons won't be able to keep up, KC actualy still is playing for home-field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs, so there is incentive to get this done in a big way - laying the points.

Cleveland Browns (-6.5) @ New York Jets TOTAL 44.5 - Jets enter off their first win of the seasan, while the Browns continue their march to the postseason. Look, the Jets didn't mail it in and continue to compete, but Cleveland is in a grrove and as long as they stick to their business, they can win this by more than a touchdown - it's a give.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!

The regular season wraps up today, one last shot before the postseason...

Baltimore Ravens (-13) @ Cincinnati Bengals TOTAL 45 - The Ravens need a win or some other clubs to lose, to make the playoffs, and my feeling is they are going to handle their own business, not leaving it to any other teams to help. They will run early and often, play tough defense and go right at the Bengals, who  have played well the last few outings, but this is  a different scenario. Ravens win by a couple of touchdowns - it's a give.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7) TOTAL 50.5 - Look, the Bucs still have something to play for as far as playoff seeding, so they have motivation, always important at this time of year. The Falcons, they are playing out the schedule and looking to the draft. One thing we know, the Tampa Bay offense can put up points  and look for them to do it again today, but the key will be to keep the Atlanta offense under attack. I think the Bucs can outscore this foe and cover - laying the touchdown.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) @ San Francisco 49ers TOTAL 46 - Seahawks still have something to play for and will look to continue their winning ways, having taken 5 of their last 6 (three straight)! The Niners have had a rough season, but they have played hard, which is a testament to their organization. Still, not sure it will be enough in this spot. Looking for Seattle to turn up the defense and the offense does the rest - giving the points.